When Tarik Skubal, the 2024 AL Cy Young Award‑winning starter for Detroit Tigers takes the mound against George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners on Friday, October 10, 2025, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner of ALDS Game 5T‑Mobile Park advances to the American League Championship Series for the first time in more than a decade.
Series Overview: A Back‑And‑Forth Battle
The American League Division Series has been a seesaw. After the Mariners stole Game 1 in Seattle, the Tigers responded with a 5‑2 win in Detroit. Seattle reclaimed the series with a 6‑4 victory in Game 2, then added a 7‑3 triumph in Game 3, leaving Detroit down 2‑1 heading into Game 4. The Tigers answered with a decisive 9‑3 rout at Comerica Park, snapping an eight‑game home losing streak and forcing a winner‑take‑all showdown.
Pitching Duel: Skubal vs. Kirby
Both aces entered the series with mixed results against each other. In Game 1, Kirby logged five innings, gave up six hits and three earned runs while fanning eight. Skubal, fresh off a 6‑0 win over the Chicago White Sox on September 6, posted a 1.62 ERA over his last 28 innings. According to PrizePicks analytics, Skubal has limited opponents to a 7.2% barrel rate and a 40.6% hard‑hit rate, while Kirby has seen an 11.4% barrel rate and a 52.3% hard‑hit rate against his last 86 batters.
"I feel good about my stuff," Skubal said in a pre‑game interview. "The guys have been solid behind me, and I trust the defense to make the calls. It’s a simple game plan: keep the runs off the board and let our offense do the rest."
Kirby, meanwhile, acknowledged the challenge: "Detroit’s lineup is dangerous in the middle of the order. I’m focused on hitting my spots and staying ahead of the count. If I can keep the pressure on early, the game can swing our way."
Key Offensive Players to Watch
For Seattle, catcher Cal Raleigh has been a postseason powerhouse, batting .438 with four RBI. His 60 home runs during the regular season led the majors, and he’s already logged a solo homer in Game 3.
Detroit’s left‑handed slugger Javier Báez leads the Tigers in postseason hits (nine) and boasts a .346 average. His three‑run blast in Game 4 proved he can deliver in clutch moments.
First baseman Spencer Torkelson has driven in six runs so far and carried a 31‑home‑run, 78‑RBI season. If the Tigers get early runs, his bat could become a game‑changer.
Betting Lines, Predictions, and What the Numbers Say
CBS Sports listed the Tigers as -120 favorites on the money line, meaning a $120 wager yields a $100 profit. Fox Sports projected a 5‑4 Mariners win, assigning a 54% probability to Detroit and a 46% chance to Seattle. The over/under is set at 9.5 runs, reflecting how tightly contested the series has been.
Statistically, the Mariners have compiled an 8‑4 record as home underdogs and a 52‑31 record overall at home this season. Detroit, on the other hand, posted a 64‑50 record after a win but suffered an 8‑4 slide in home games before breaking through in Game 4.
What’s at Stake: A Trip to the ALCS
The victor moves on to face the winner of the other ALDS matchup (likely the New York Yankees or Houston Astros) in the American League Championship Series, slated to start no later than Tuesday, October 14, 2025. For Detroit, it would be the franchise’s first ALCS appearance since 2014—a milestone that could revive a fan base that’s endured several rebuilding years.
Seattle hopes to cap a season that featured the most home runs in MLB history and prove that their late‑season surge was no fluke. A win would also cement George Kirby’s reputation as a postseason ace, a title he’s chased since his 2022 rookie season.
Historical Context: Past ALDS Showdowns
The 2025 ALDS marks the first time the Tigers and Mariners have met in a postseason series. Both clubs have a storied past in the American League, with Detroit winning the World Series in 1984 and 2006, while Seattle’s 2022 ALCS run remains its deepest postseason run to date. The last time either franchise appeared in an ALCS was Detroit in 2014 and Seattle in 2022.
Games that go to a decisive fifth are rare in the division round; only 12% of ALDS matchups have reached a Game 5 since the format’s inception in 1995. The pressure, therefore, is palpable for players on both sides.
Broadcast Details and How to Watch
Game 5 will be broadcast nationally on TBS and FOX, with a simulcast on the MLB app for streaming subscribers. The kickoff is set for 8:05 p.m. ET, which translates to 5:05 p.m. PT—perfect for West Coast fans who’ve been cheering the Mariners all season.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the outcome affect Detroit’s postseason chances?
A win sends the Tigers to the ALCS, giving them a shot at their first league‑final appearance since 2014. It also boosts morale heading into a potential series against a powerhouse like the Yankees, and could cement Tarik Skubal’s status as a postseason leader.
What are the key factors that could tip the game in Seattle’s favor?
Seattle’s offense, led by Cal Raleigh’s .438 average in the series, needs to capitalize early. Solid bullpen work and limiting Skubal’s hard‑hit rate will also be vital. If Kirby can keep Detroit’s middle order off the table, the Mariners have a strong chance.
When does the ALCS start and who might the winner face?
The ALCS is scheduled to begin no later than Tuesday, October 14, 2025. The victors of the Tigers‑Mariners series are expected to meet the winner of the other ALDS, most likely the New York Yankees or the Houston Astros, depending on that series’ outcome.
What are the betting odds and what do they suggest?
Detroit is listed at -120 on the money line, indicating a slight edge over Seattle. Fox Sports’ win‑probability model shows a 54% chance for the Tigers and 46% for the Mariners, suggesting a fairly even contest with a marginal tilt toward Detroit.
Who are the standout pitchers and what have their stats been?
Tarik Skubal has a 1.62 ERA over his last 28 innings, a 7.2% barrel rate and 40 strikeouts in his last 20 innings. George Kirby holds a 3.64 ERA this postseason, with a 11.4% barrel rate and 39 strikeouts over 22 innings, but has allowed three or more runs in each of his four previous starts against Detroit.